Markov Chain Reroll Solver: Quality Rerolling Profit Math
Is it worth clicking the reroll button at the repair station? The answer is a mathematical trade-off between the item's base Item Value (IV) and the market price delta between quality tiers.
Math Breakdown
The cost of a reroll click scales with the item's quality multiplier and its IV. For low-tier flat items, the click cost is higher than the value increase, making it a waste of silver. For high-tier weapons (e.g. T8.3 shadowcaller), a single quality upgrade adds millions in value, making the expected reroll math highly favorable.
Probability and Cost Analysis
Rerolling uses pre-determined success rates: Good (30.0%), Outstanding (9.0%), Excellent (0.9%), and Masterpiece (0.1%). Every click is independent, but by grouping outcomes as a Markov chain, you can calculate the expected budget required to secure your target quality without going broke.
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